Postpouri

Took a couple days PTO before New Year's so I am just finding time to update this blog.  Clearly I've not given this much priority - looks like my last update was September.  I'll update about work mostly but also some personal life stuff.

Work: 

I think I've mentioned how I've had to take over a lot of the managerial stuff in my department since my supervisor's departure.  I've found this stuff very frustrating! (and I hear the former boss did not enjoy it much either, for the same reasons).  Executives have a lot of management 'devices' - tools to define goals, motivate and focus work, grade performance, etc.  These devices seem to usually come from the latest article on management published in the Harvard Business Review.  Some executive gets the idea to propose implementing a device they read across the company and...I don't know, maybe improve their reputation with the board or with the CEO or something if it 'works' (i.e. if we unrelatedly happen to have a good year).

Two reasons this is shitty:  First is that a case study doesn't establish that the device was responsible for whatever claimed positive impact was found at the company it came out of (usually a large tech company which in no way resembles our small carrier).  Secondly, the implementation pre-requisites are often laid out in the article but ignored anyway, at least at my company.  This is the part that frustrates me most, because I have to implement it in my department.  One such device isn't even meant to be used at a departmental level - it is specific to a business unit.  There are requirements for numbers of employees, authority levels, etc, none of which are met in my department of 1.  Not to mention the fact that the financial performance indicators are not something that can be tracked at a departmental level.  So the scorecards and things that I end up putting together end up 1. wasting a lot of my time; 2. frustrating me because I know I can't create anything of quality but I have to make it and call it mine anyway; 3. being constituted of a lot of bullshit; and 4. potentially influencing decisions at a higher level (GIGO - garbage in, garbage out).

And I'm still handling this stuff after 4.5 months now.

What else..

I've completed a second major project recently and had very good results both in terms of the actual findings and in my effectiveness at presenting the findings to a broader audience.  That was a high note in the past couple months.

I also have a couple projects on deck which will be more interesting.  Assessing a data product (relativities) which could potentially be implemented in our rating structure is one.  As far as how to do that..I have to figure it out.  I guess there is the crude approach - order exposures ascending by the relativity provided to us, group exposures into quantiles and assess loss ratios over a historical period - and there must be a more sophisticated approach.  Not sure exactly what the more sophisticated approach is and have to figure that out...its a loss model, so transforming the relativity and entering it into the existing severity GLM (as an offset?) and comparing the results to the reference model without the relativity based on AIC, BIC, gini index, Deviance.  If you know what I'm talking about I'd appreciate comments or link to the relevant CAS papers.

And let's see...I have to mention I'm sort of hesitant to talk too specifically about work in case someone I work with comes across this blog.  But it looks like I'm going to get some experience in another actuarial area due to the departure of some staff.  I think this will ultimately be a positive for my career development, though I also feel my development in my own area has been very slow due to not having guidance and this will only further hinder me there.

Last thought for those hoping to enter the field: I've found that one of my biggest areas for improvement is communicating/summarizing technical information for others.  Don't underestimate how important this is!  Executives want a few bullets, color-coded tables, 1-5 rating systems, etc.  Looking at your main graphs or tables and trying to imagine yourself as a person with no prior knowledge is difficult but useful.  What is bolded, larger font, how the table is laid out, where there is an arrow to draw attention, what columns are needed and which ones have less value in information added than value taken away by added complexity/confusion - these considerations are all important, though they can be frustrating for the donkey who knows his exhibits top-to-bottom.

Personal:

This post is already tl;dr and I'm getting tired of writing.  I've been on a few dates and there are two girls that are very interested but I'm just not feeling it for either of them.  There's just no spark.  Usually I am not the one feeling that way and it kind of sucks being the one that has to say this is not going anywhere.  Maybe I'm just getting pickier as I get older, which is a theory I heard recently, but I think really that pickings are getting slimmer.

Also, I just joined a brolic gym where I can lift heavy shit and put it down.  I've been wanting to do this for a while now.  I got a personal trainer (he manages the gym) I'll be working with 3 times a week at $25 bucks per hour session.  The gym itself was $35 a month or a year for like $150...I was really happily surprised, when the only other thing I was able to find was crossfit at over $9000 dollars a month and the people all seem like tools.  I'm doing the month before I go for the full year.  First session is Tuesday.

Peace out.

Slackalacking

Overdue to post this update - I did indeed pass FM two weeks ago.  This was followed by lots of drinking Sunday evening (with my boss, my former boss, and other coworkers), and lots of drinking after work for the rest of the week.  The following week was a recovery week.

I was seriously considering prepping for the Halloween sitting of 3L.  I'd have to kill myself to be prepared in 2 months, but I think it would ultimately be worth it given that I'll save an exam come 2014 with the impending split of 3L by the CAS.  However, my boss sort of discouraged me in our last weekly meeting.  Though he didn't outright say not to, he emphasized how tough it would be and spent more time talking about the readings I and we had to do.  So though I got the manual for 3L, my new plan is to start casually studying now for MFE in March and 3LC/ST material for the May sitting, but to focus on the papers I have to read for work.  Maybe I'll knock out a VEE in the meantime.

Here are some quick reflections that may say more about myself/my company than life at entry level generally.  First, I find my company is super cheap when it comes to the exam incentives.  Now that I actually have a raise/bonus due, it turns out the newer revised (better) student program was not yet approved (though it was discussed with me in April when I was interviewing) and I will be getting the lesser rewards of the older program.  However, I can't get the raise/bonus until I get official notice of my passing FM, at which point the newer program WILL be past implementation!!!

Secondly, though I haven't seen more $$$ yet, I've been out spending it.  This weekend I'm away but I still went out and dropped some cash on new work clothes and shoes.  Actually over the entire past month I've been finding reasons to buy more outfits for work.  Also I've been stocking my house with better bourbon/beer and going out more.  I don't fit the cheap actuary stereotype very well.  I have to make a serious effort to reign in the spending and start saving/paying off loans!

I took an extra day off to make a 4-day weekend out of the holiday.  Visiting family where I grew up and spending time on the beach.  I'll be back to updating more regularly this week - actually, probably more regularly than I was before since I won't have a looming exam.

-FS

t=n-1

I now have 1 day until I write FM.  I feel like I have a pretty good shot, but not close to where I want to be.  Maybe a 70% chance of passing.  A few tough questions or failing to find a groove early on and I will definitely crash and burn.  I know the feeling from P, as well as the feeling when all the dominoes just seem to fall nicely as you go through the questions and your confidence increases with each answer.  I hope it ends up being the latter obviously.

Things that are still tripping me up include some of the long calculations involved with duration and the formula derivation type questions (which is a valid expression for...).  I'm pretty solid on bonds, TVM and such.  Derivatives strategies are hit or miss, but I think "miss" is mostly on the strategies you see less frequently (reverse cash and carry: sell the index, buy a bond with proceeds, long the forward I think...  though cash and carry I know you buy a tailed position I better go look these up again).

Tomorrow:  first thing in the morning is yoga class to clear my mind. Aside from that - I keep a special notebook with all the problems I missed due to more than a stupid/calculation error.  I'll probably go over and/or rework all of these, maybe do TIA quizzes on my weak areas, look at index cards and notes - no practice exams.  Have to take it easy and be fresh Sunday morning.

For my last 3 exams I've eaten fish the day before because I hear it is good for memory - but I also failed 2 of my last 3 sittings so....If you have any tips or rituals for the day before, please share =).

-FA

About to Get Interesting

Some major news this week.  When I went into the office Monday morning I saw my SVP (my boss's boss) had on Sunday evening scheduled an early morning meeting with myself and my boss as the only attendees.  A bit odd, obviously.  Turns out my supervisor/mentor had decided over the weekend to accept an offer and was about to give official notice later in the day.

Now, to a typical analyst this might not be a big deal - so you get a new boss and continue doing what you do.  In my case, this is not true.  First, my supervisor is Director level and I am the only person that reports to them.  We work very closely and it was quite a stroke of luck to be trained 1-on-1 by a seasoned FCAS.  Secondly, our team or unit (predictive modeling) works quite autonomously compared to the pricing or reserving teams.  A typical pricing team will do the same thing from quarter to quarter and year to year - calculate indications, file rate changes with state insurance departments, rinse and repeat.  In contrast, my boss would determine what projects we would undertake (new tiering models, retention studies, research projects for the marketing department, studies of deductible strategies, and so on) with some (but limited) input from other areas of the company.  Whereas a pricing analyst can, after 3 months, more or less do what they have to do for some time, I am sort of useless without someone making decisions and designing research projects for me to work on.  Finally, my boss was just a really cool person in general and fun to work with.

Now I find myself feeling a bit insecure about the future, mostly because I am unsure how long it will be until a replacement is hired.  People say things tend to move slowly around the company and 6 months is an optimistic guess.  While I have some projects to complete in that time, 6 months is about the limit of how long I can last without the real guidance of someone designing new projects and teaching me what they know, given my current knowledge base.  That means I would have to do some serious reading on designing studies/modeling experiments myself starting now.  And while I am sure I can bring myself up to speed in this timeframe, it would come at the expense of exam progress and I am not sure if my capability would be recognized.

The other reason to feel insecure is that everyone else realizes the work I get to do is so interesting.  It seems like 1 or 2 other analysts suddenly want to spend their Friday afternoon attending some meetings with myself and my boss instead of the usual early departure.  This is some added pressure to gain recognition as being competent without close supervision - so that my job duties are not divided up amongst whoever reaches.  I am less worried about this factor given that I have much greater resources and time invested in learning about the actual modeling work, but some others have seniority, stronger relationships around the office, and deeper knowledge of their own product lines and data.

So the possibilities seem to be either that I get moved to another team where expertise exists in the near future, that my responsibility for analytics over all product lines gets divided up amongst the eager analysts, that a replacement is found quickly, or that I gain enough expertise to work independently for an indefinite period of time while also establishing my credibility and defending my turf.

Honestly, more than anything I'm really going to miss the good working relationship with my boss and their coolness on a personal level.  As I mentioned in earlier posts, I may be looking for a different company in my preferred geographic location in 9 months to a year from now anyway.  The past 3 months have gone by really quickly and I am hoping that whatever the coming months hold does not radically change my experience for the worse.

Current Adapt EL: 5.75
Remaining Study Days: 8

First Post

Hello world.

I'm starting this blog to document the development of my career as I begin my first position in the insurance industry.  I plan on posting about exam material, software I learn and use on the job, my work life, personal life and anything else that may be on my mind.  This will be an outlet for me so I'll limit the information I share so as to remain anonymous.  I'll follow up with a post on my background leading up to my first job offer soon.

I hope that some future aspiring actuaries will find this blog useful in pursuing their own career goals, or at least an entertaining distraction from studying for their next exam.

Not sure how I'll be signing off yet, so for now it will just be...

-The Analyst