Bloggin', Postin'

Personal post before getting back to work tomorrow.  Had a short mini-vacation since work last Friday, though I did go in for 1.5 hours for a meeting on Tuesday (NYE).

What is proper etiquette if a meeting where your attendance is required gets scheduled on a day you took off but forgot to mark as such on your calendar?

First workout at the gym was Tuesday.  I work with a trainer, he had me do "back and accessories" which meant barbell rows, then some row machine, then some other sort of row with a cable which was suppose to hit my deltoids, then lat pull downs, then pull ups and some curls to end.  3 sets of 10 for each exercise, I think 15 for the curls.  I'll have to start paying attention to what the names are and the weight I'm doing, I think the most I did with the barbell row was 95.  Most of the later exercises I had trouble hitting the last few reps - got spent really quickly.  Today my back is feeling it all over though, which I take is a good thing; but, the inside of my elbows is also really feeling it like near the joint or maybe the ligament.  I also can't extend fully, so not sure if that is a good or bad thing.

Have some date nights coming up, but I also go cancelled on Monday night like an hour before.  This would have been a second date and was probably going to be a sleepover since she lives an hour away and we were planning on drinking in.  This is not wifey material, we are pretty clear we are just looking for some fun with each other.  Anyway, the purported reason for canceling was she had no gas to drive here.

I was talking to my friend, he said I should have gone and picked her up.  That didn't seem reasonable to me - little too desperate or something.  Since I don't have much to say tonight I'm gonna put some convo down below for entertainment and to see what independent thoughts people have and may share.  The only background you need is to know we had one double-date, she made it clear she was DTF, we planned a 2nd date but she cancelled on me, then after some back and forth we hadn't talked in about 10 days and I was the last to message her something but never got a response.  Following all that, I hit her up one night which is where it starts below.  I'm redacting location info.

inb4beta
-FS

AROUND 3AMFS: Heyy - be a good sport and tell me what it was? Not that I'm eating myself up or anything, just so I can make improvements in the future. I'm really terrible at girls haha. Appreciated ;)Female: I've just been busy..looking for a job.. Why is it that you don't talk to someone for a few days and they think you aren't interested. I like you, I wanna see you again soon I've just been busy with holiday stuff and looking for work. How are you?FS: Pleaseeeee, you went from talking to me on the regular to ignoring me. It's all good, I've been on both sides of that so I understand haha.. Sometimes there just isn't that spark. ;) You will find a job don't worry.Female: Stop I like youFS: seriously ? :*) baw. Playing.Female: You're cute, what are you doing tomorrow night?FS: taking you out :)Female: =) where?FS: Hmm ice skating at xxxxxxx, and dinner at the hipster vegetarian place?Female: Idk about ice skating, I don't like the cold.. Maybe something else? If that's okay... :( food sounds great though!FS: hahaFS: theres that non-spark again. What do you like? remember what I said about not being good at this :)Female: Idk what is there to do that isn't outdoors? :pFS: Well we can always just chill and drink wine, watch netflix, catch up on that conversation we never had cus of the surprise double date ;) Goto the movies.. go test drive sports cars we can't afford. I'm actually off tomorrow, which is why I'm still up. So if you wanna catch a matinee when nobody is there we could do that.Female: HmmFemale: I like how netflix sounds :)FS: Sounds good to me, I'm really enjoying the shit out of this couch I finally got into the apartment through my window.Female: Is it super comfy?FS: fuck yes :)Female: Nice I'm excited, I'm gonna get some sleep I'll message you tomorrow :)FS: Word, sweet screams

NEXT DAY AROUND 5PMFemale: So small issue, I don't have the gas to get to xxxxxxx tonight..FS: Damn that suxFemale: Yeah it really doesFS: Yup well let me know if you figure it out I was looking forward.Female: Me too :(

Postpouri

Took a couple days PTO before New Year's so I am just finding time to update this blog.  Clearly I've not given this much priority - looks like my last update was September.  I'll update about work mostly but also some personal life stuff.

Work: 

I think I've mentioned how I've had to take over a lot of the managerial stuff in my department since my supervisor's departure.  I've found this stuff very frustrating! (and I hear the former boss did not enjoy it much either, for the same reasons).  Executives have a lot of management 'devices' - tools to define goals, motivate and focus work, grade performance, etc.  These devices seem to usually come from the latest article on management published in the Harvard Business Review.  Some executive gets the idea to propose implementing a device they read across the company and...I don't know, maybe improve their reputation with the board or with the CEO or something if it 'works' (i.e. if we unrelatedly happen to have a good year).

Two reasons this is shitty:  First is that a case study doesn't establish that the device was responsible for whatever claimed positive impact was found at the company it came out of (usually a large tech company which in no way resembles our small carrier).  Secondly, the implementation pre-requisites are often laid out in the article but ignored anyway, at least at my company.  This is the part that frustrates me most, because I have to implement it in my department.  One such device isn't even meant to be used at a departmental level - it is specific to a business unit.  There are requirements for numbers of employees, authority levels, etc, none of which are met in my department of 1.  Not to mention the fact that the financial performance indicators are not something that can be tracked at a departmental level.  So the scorecards and things that I end up putting together end up 1. wasting a lot of my time; 2. frustrating me because I know I can't create anything of quality but I have to make it and call it mine anyway; 3. being constituted of a lot of bullshit; and 4. potentially influencing decisions at a higher level (GIGO - garbage in, garbage out).

And I'm still handling this stuff after 4.5 months now.

What else..

I've completed a second major project recently and had very good results both in terms of the actual findings and in my effectiveness at presenting the findings to a broader audience.  That was a high note in the past couple months.

I also have a couple projects on deck which will be more interesting.  Assessing a data product (relativities) which could potentially be implemented in our rating structure is one.  As far as how to do that..I have to figure it out.  I guess there is the crude approach - order exposures ascending by the relativity provided to us, group exposures into quantiles and assess loss ratios over a historical period - and there must be a more sophisticated approach.  Not sure exactly what the more sophisticated approach is and have to figure that out...its a loss model, so transforming the relativity and entering it into the existing severity GLM (as an offset?) and comparing the results to the reference model without the relativity based on AIC, BIC, gini index, Deviance.  If you know what I'm talking about I'd appreciate comments or link to the relevant CAS papers.

And let's see...I have to mention I'm sort of hesitant to talk too specifically about work in case someone I work with comes across this blog.  But it looks like I'm going to get some experience in another actuarial area due to the departure of some staff.  I think this will ultimately be a positive for my career development, though I also feel my development in my own area has been very slow due to not having guidance and this will only further hinder me there.

Last thought for those hoping to enter the field: I've found that one of my biggest areas for improvement is communicating/summarizing technical information for others.  Don't underestimate how important this is!  Executives want a few bullets, color-coded tables, 1-5 rating systems, etc.  Looking at your main graphs or tables and trying to imagine yourself as a person with no prior knowledge is difficult but useful.  What is bolded, larger font, how the table is laid out, where there is an arrow to draw attention, what columns are needed and which ones have less value in information added than value taken away by added complexity/confusion - these considerations are all important, though they can be frustrating for the donkey who knows his exhibits top-to-bottom.

Personal:

This post is already tl;dr and I'm getting tired of writing.  I've been on a few dates and there are two girls that are very interested but I'm just not feeling it for either of them.  There's just no spark.  Usually I am not the one feeling that way and it kind of sucks being the one that has to say this is not going anywhere.  Maybe I'm just getting pickier as I get older, which is a theory I heard recently, but I think really that pickings are getting slimmer.

Also, I just joined a brolic gym where I can lift heavy shit and put it down.  I've been wanting to do this for a while now.  I got a personal trainer (he manages the gym) I'll be working with 3 times a week at $25 bucks per hour session.  The gym itself was $35 a month or a year for like $150...I was really happily surprised, when the only other thing I was able to find was crossfit at over $9000 dollars a month and the people all seem like tools.  I'm doing the month before I go for the full year.  First session is Tuesday.

Peace out.

On Online Dating

This blog is mostly about things of an actuarial nature, but occasionally I need to vent about the world and what is bothering me on a given day.  Today it is online dating.

Yes, I set up a profile on one of the dating sites and I've had some communication with a few girls but never leading anywhere.  Today I messaged someone who responded immediately with the following:

"Your profile is terrible! I get to know nothing about you from it so I don't have a clue if I am interested in getting to know you."

It took everything I had to resist pointing out the contradiction in that statement.  Failed.

I don't know if it is consumer culture or increasingly anti-social tendencies among youth due to online modes of communication, but I am frustrated every day by the attitudes I perceive, especially among 20's women.  I don't look or act like a creep - I'm a normal guy of average or maybe slightly above average attractiveness, and above average intelligence.  But it is almost unacceptable today to approach a girl you don't know out in public and show interest. If you try to strike up a conversation with a female stranger you are automatically a creep.

Enter online dating.  Allows people to minimize the awkward interaction component of dating - if you don't like someone's appearance or what they have to say about themselves you can just ignore them.  No need to go through the motions out of politeness as you might in person.  But I feel like the experience encourages a shopper's mentality.  You browse profiles like you would items at the grocery store.  You read the label,  read the blurbs, compare it to the next item on the shelf...you do everything but test the product.  On the other side are people marketing themselves, using the right buzz words, trying to appear fun and adventurous, intelligent and successful - every dude near me is apparently an avid hiker who loves to plan adventures.

IMO, online dating provides two advantages over the bar: it allows me to identify singles and exclude those who are taken, and it allows me to separate full-on idiots from those of reasonable intelligence (sentence structure and grammar).  To gain those two advantages I sacrifice on the third important aspect (pre-getting to know someone) which is assessing physical attractiveness.  This is better done in person but can still be achieved at some level of confidence online.  After those 3 filters are applied I want to get to know the person - that is, I want to meet over a drink and have a conversation.  I do not want to read a life story online and compare their personality test answers to my own.  I want to save the mystery and learn those things the old fashioned way, but it seems to be the expectation that you get all of that out of the way in advance.

So yes - most of my profile sections are brief and filled in with comments about cats with funny captions.  I expect females to determine whether my looks meet their standards and to contact me (or respond if I messaged them) if they are interested.  I'm not making a sales pitch or giving up my income level in advance - if someone wants to get to know me they will have to skip getting to know me.

-FS

Slackalacking

Overdue to post this update - I did indeed pass FM two weeks ago.  This was followed by lots of drinking Sunday evening (with my boss, my former boss, and other coworkers), and lots of drinking after work for the rest of the week.  The following week was a recovery week.

I was seriously considering prepping for the Halloween sitting of 3L.  I'd have to kill myself to be prepared in 2 months, but I think it would ultimately be worth it given that I'll save an exam come 2014 with the impending split of 3L by the CAS.  However, my boss sort of discouraged me in our last weekly meeting.  Though he didn't outright say not to, he emphasized how tough it would be and spent more time talking about the readings I and we had to do.  So though I got the manual for 3L, my new plan is to start casually studying now for MFE in March and 3LC/ST material for the May sitting, but to focus on the papers I have to read for work.  Maybe I'll knock out a VEE in the meantime.

Here are some quick reflections that may say more about myself/my company than life at entry level generally.  First, I find my company is super cheap when it comes to the exam incentives.  Now that I actually have a raise/bonus due, it turns out the newer revised (better) student program was not yet approved (though it was discussed with me in April when I was interviewing) and I will be getting the lesser rewards of the older program.  However, I can't get the raise/bonus until I get official notice of my passing FM, at which point the newer program WILL be past implementation!!!

Secondly, though I haven't seen more $$$ yet, I've been out spending it.  This weekend I'm away but I still went out and dropped some cash on new work clothes and shoes.  Actually over the entire past month I've been finding reasons to buy more outfits for work.  Also I've been stocking my house with better bourbon/beer and going out more.  I don't fit the cheap actuary stereotype very well.  I have to make a serious effort to reign in the spending and start saving/paying off loans!

I took an extra day off to make a 4-day weekend out of the holiday.  Visiting family where I grew up and spending time on the beach.  I'll be back to updating more regularly this week - actually, probably more regularly than I was before since I won't have a looming exam.

-FS

t=n-1

I now have 1 day until I write FM.  I feel like I have a pretty good shot, but not close to where I want to be.  Maybe a 70% chance of passing.  A few tough questions or failing to find a groove early on and I will definitely crash and burn.  I know the feeling from P, as well as the feeling when all the dominoes just seem to fall nicely as you go through the questions and your confidence increases with each answer.  I hope it ends up being the latter obviously.

Things that are still tripping me up include some of the long calculations involved with duration and the formula derivation type questions (which is a valid expression for...).  I'm pretty solid on bonds, TVM and such.  Derivatives strategies are hit or miss, but I think "miss" is mostly on the strategies you see less frequently (reverse cash and carry: sell the index, buy a bond with proceeds, long the forward I think...  though cash and carry I know you buy a tailed position I better go look these up again).

Tomorrow:  first thing in the morning is yoga class to clear my mind. Aside from that - I keep a special notebook with all the problems I missed due to more than a stupid/calculation error.  I'll probably go over and/or rework all of these, maybe do TIA quizzes on my weak areas, look at index cards and notes - no practice exams.  Have to take it easy and be fresh Sunday morning.

For my last 3 exams I've eaten fish the day before because I hear it is good for memory - but I also failed 2 of my last 3 sittings so....If you have any tips or rituals for the day before, please share =).

-FA

Finding Motivation

One week to go and I am really having trouble pressing on with more practice exams.  I boosted up my EL to 6.75 from about 5.7 with one good exam the other day, which is encouraging because of the gains being made but also deflates me when I run into questions that stump me with much higher frequency.  I just went to start a test, couldn't get an answer for 3 of the first 4 questions, said fuck it and scored the exam up so I could look at solutions.  I know if I took the real thing today you could predict my passing with a coin flip, so I need to get through these level 6 to 8ish questions now filling my practice tests.

For now though, I think I am about to goto the bar for a drink and food  Maybe take a nap and then do a test tonight before bed.   I wish I could hit reset on my exhaustion with these practice exams somehow.

Days til test: 6.5

Earned Level: 6.75

Tests completed: about 20

About to Get Interesting

Some major news this week.  When I went into the office Monday morning I saw my SVP (my boss's boss) had on Sunday evening scheduled an early morning meeting with myself and my boss as the only attendees.  A bit odd, obviously.  Turns out my supervisor/mentor had decided over the weekend to accept an offer and was about to give official notice later in the day.

Now, to a typical analyst this might not be a big deal - so you get a new boss and continue doing what you do.  In my case, this is not true.  First, my supervisor is Director level and I am the only person that reports to them.  We work very closely and it was quite a stroke of luck to be trained 1-on-1 by a seasoned FCAS.  Secondly, our team or unit (predictive modeling) works quite autonomously compared to the pricing or reserving teams.  A typical pricing team will do the same thing from quarter to quarter and year to year - calculate indications, file rate changes with state insurance departments, rinse and repeat.  In contrast, my boss would determine what projects we would undertake (new tiering models, retention studies, research projects for the marketing department, studies of deductible strategies, and so on) with some (but limited) input from other areas of the company.  Whereas a pricing analyst can, after 3 months, more or less do what they have to do for some time, I am sort of useless without someone making decisions and designing research projects for me to work on.  Finally, my boss was just a really cool person in general and fun to work with.

Now I find myself feeling a bit insecure about the future, mostly because I am unsure how long it will be until a replacement is hired.  People say things tend to move slowly around the company and 6 months is an optimistic guess.  While I have some projects to complete in that time, 6 months is about the limit of how long I can last without the real guidance of someone designing new projects and teaching me what they know, given my current knowledge base.  That means I would have to do some serious reading on designing studies/modeling experiments myself starting now.  And while I am sure I can bring myself up to speed in this timeframe, it would come at the expense of exam progress and I am not sure if my capability would be recognized.

The other reason to feel insecure is that everyone else realizes the work I get to do is so interesting.  It seems like 1 or 2 other analysts suddenly want to spend their Friday afternoon attending some meetings with myself and my boss instead of the usual early departure.  This is some added pressure to gain recognition as being competent without close supervision - so that my job duties are not divided up amongst whoever reaches.  I am less worried about this factor given that I have much greater resources and time invested in learning about the actual modeling work, but some others have seniority, stronger relationships around the office, and deeper knowledge of their own product lines and data.

So the possibilities seem to be either that I get moved to another team where expertise exists in the near future, that my responsibility for analytics over all product lines gets divided up amongst the eager analysts, that a replacement is found quickly, or that I gain enough expertise to work independently for an indefinite period of time while also establishing my credibility and defending my turf.

Honestly, more than anything I'm really going to miss the good working relationship with my boss and their coolness on a personal level.  As I mentioned in earlier posts, I may be looking for a different company in my preferred geographic location in 9 months to a year from now anyway.  The past 3 months have gone by really quickly and I am hoping that whatever the coming months hold does not radically change my experience for the worse.

Current Adapt EL: 5.75
Remaining Study Days: 8

Epic People Study to Epic Music

No time for blog posts - here is 5 hours of epic study music.  FM in two weeks and I'm only at 4.75 earned level on ADAPT.

Dating Actuarially

I'm having a bourbon and decided I'd throw a curve ball and write a post about dating.  As a single mid-20 something recently broken up from a long term relationship, I'm becoming increasingly aware of my own shelf life as a bachelor and how this is at odds with the lifestyle (exams) I've chosen for the next 5 or so years.

At the end of April I broke up with my girlfriend of about a year.  She was a childhood friend/flame with whom I had reconnected last summer.  At the time, I was in school and we lived 3 hours apart.  The fact that we saw each other about every 3 weeks or so along with the fact that I was an impoverished, returned-college student while she was 5 years into a very successful career in finance made the relationship difficult (moreso for me than for her, of course).  As I approached graduation with only one job offer in hand (from my current employer) and that location being equally as far away from her, it became clear things were not going to work out between us.

So with that background, I re-entered the 20-something dating scene.  By "scene" I largely mean online dating...I've been around long enough to have noticed the trend, which is that if you go up and talk to a girl in person out in public these days you are automatically a creep (which was not the case 5 years ago).  I think this coincides with other increasingly anti-social trends among youth - probably due to the influence of technology and weakened bonds within communities with each passing generation.  Or maybe I'm just growing uglier as I get older, I don't know...

That said, I've had a *couple* dates since graduating in May with girls I've met in person, and in fact 0 dates from online dating sites.  But I've spent more time trying to meet girls through the sites.  I think this is a second observation - if you message a girl on an online dating site, you are automatically a creep and must be ignored.  I know - girls are inundated with messages from every slob out there once they log on.  It is also possible I am in fact coming off more and more as a creep (desperation?) as time passes, leading to greater rejection.  I would think I'd have better success as a reasonably good looking, intelligent, and charismatic guy *with a decent job*.  Anyway, just venting a bit...

Well, I know it hasn't been long and I'm meditating to cease looking and to instead allow opportunities to come to me (and to recognize them).  I'm extremely picky with looks and personality to start, so I can't help but think about how the eligible female pool is dwindling with a constant force as t --> ∞.  I wonder if my x is thinking the same as I am but about men.  Maybe we will revisit each other at 30.

Keeping up

Hey,

Been neglecting this blog.  This will likely get worse as I come up on my exam date mid-August.  I just ended my run through the last of the material (I went through options pretty quickly, hopefully I can brute force that material through 28 or so days of ADAPT).  I am pretty solid on most of the annuities/loans/bonds/TVM material.  I am getting a bit nervous and had my first nightmare the other night about being at the office post-failed attempt.  I know I will not jeopardize my position by failing on the first attempt, but it would be nice to pass it first attempt right before my 90 day review.

I am getting a bit more comfortable in my position since the last post.  I'm just shy of 2 months on the job now.  I go into the office and either have a project to resume work on, or else I know what I can read and learn about.  I'm starting to learn and use TW Emblem, for example.

My excel skills are progressing pretty nicely.  I definitely see myself either taking a VBA class or getting a book to teach myself from in the near future.  I've been finding macros online and editing them a bit to make my workbooks more user-friendsly (i.e. I was tired of having to change filters on multiple tables to update my charts to display a different band, so I found one which updates all the pivot tables on the worksheet to match the one you change).  I wish that my coworkers/bosses were a little more into advanced Excel usage and I could learn from or with them.

I've also been interacting more with our vendors lately.  ISO and some others... for purposes of requesting data, discussing our data and whatnot.  I'm happy to start building some relationships because 1. I like branching out of my cubicle and 2. I may want to go to work for one of these companies one day.

I'll leave it there, work in the morning!  If you have any excel tips/tricks, leave them in comments.