Friday, August 16, 2013

t=n-1

I now have 1 day until I write FM.  I feel like I have a pretty good shot, but not close to where I want to be.  Maybe a 70% chance of passing.  A few tough questions or failing to find a groove early on and I will definitely crash and burn.  I know the feeling from P, as well as the feeling when all the dominoes just seem to fall nicely as you go through the questions and your confidence increases with each answer.  I hope it ends up being the latter obviously.

Things that are still tripping me up include some of the long calculations involved with duration and the formula derivation type questions (which is a valid expression for...).  I'm pretty solid on bonds, TVM and such.  Derivatives strategies are hit or miss, but I think "miss" is mostly on the strategies you see less frequently (reverse cash and carry: sell the index, buy a bond with proceeds, long the forward I think...  though cash and carry I know you buy a tailed position I better go look these up again).

Tomorrow:  first thing in the morning is yoga class to clear my mind. Aside from that - I keep a special notebook with all the problems I missed due to more than a stupid/calculation error.  I'll probably go over and/or rework all of these, maybe do TIA quizzes on my weak areas, look at index cards and notes - no practice exams.  Have to take it easy and be fresh Sunday morning.

For my last 3 exams I've eaten fish the day before because I hear it is good for memory - but I also failed 2 of my last 3 sittings so....If you have any tips or rituals for the day before, please share =).

-FA

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Finding Motivation

One week to go and I am really having trouble pressing on with more practice exams.  I boosted up my EL to 6.75 from about 5.7 with one good exam the other day, which is encouraging because of the gains being made but also deflates me when I run into questions that stump me with much higher frequency.  I just went to start a test, couldn't get an answer for 3 of the first 4 questions, said fuck it and scored the exam up so I could look at solutions.  I know if I took the real thing today you could predict my passing with a coin flip, so I need to get through these level 6 to 8ish questions now filling my practice tests.

For now though, I think I am about to goto the bar for a drink and food  Maybe take a nap and then do a test tonight before bed.   I wish I could hit reset on my exhaustion with these practice exams somehow.

Days til test: 6.5
Earned Level: 6.75
Tests completed: about 20

Saturday, August 10, 2013

About to Get Interesting

Some major news this week.  When I went into the office Monday morning I saw my SVP (my boss's boss) had on Sunday evening scheduled an early morning meeting with myself and my boss as the only attendees.  A bit odd, obviously.  Turns out my supervisor/mentor had decided over the weekend to accept an offer and was about to give official notice later in the day.

Now, to a typical analyst this might not be a big deal - so you get a new boss and continue doing what you do.  In my case, this is not true.  First, my supervisor is Director level and I am the only person that reports to them.  We work very closely and it was quite a stroke of luck to be trained 1-on-1 by a seasoned FCAS.  Secondly, our team or unit (predictive modeling) works quite autonomously compared to the pricing or reserving teams.  A typical pricing team will do the same thing from quarter to quarter and year to year - calculate indications, file rate changes with state insurance departments, rinse and repeat.  In contrast, my boss would determine what projects we would undertake (new tiering models, retention studies, research projects for the marketing department, studies of deductible strategies, and so on) with some (but limited) input from other areas of the company.  Whereas a pricing analyst can, after 3 months, more or less do what they have to do for some time, I am sort of useless without someone making decisions and designing research projects for me to work on.  Finally, my boss was just a really cool person in general and fun to work with.

Now I find myself feeling a bit insecure about the future, mostly because I am unsure how long it will be until a replacement is hired.  People say things tend to move slowly around the company and 6 months is an optimistic guess.  While I have some projects to complete in that time, 6 months is about the limit of how long I can last without the real guidance of someone designing new projects and teaching me what they know, given my current knowledge base.  That means I would have to do some serious reading on designing studies/modeling experiments myself starting now.  And while I am sure I can bring myself up to speed in this timeframe, it would come at the expense of exam progress and I am not sure if my capability would be recognized.

The other reason to feel insecure is that everyone else realizes the work I get to do is so interesting.  It seems like 1 or 2 other analysts suddenly want to spend their Friday afternoon attending some meetings with myself and my boss instead of the usual early departure.  This is some added pressure to gain recognition as being competent without close supervision - so that my job duties are not divided up amongst whoever reaches.  I am less worried about this factor given that I have much greater resources and time invested in learning about the actual modeling work, but some others have seniority, stronger relationships around the office, and deeper knowledge of their own product lines and data.

So the possibilities seem to be either that I get moved to another team where expertise exists in the near future, that my responsibility for analytics over all product lines gets divided up amongst the eager analysts, that a replacement is found quickly, or that I gain enough expertise to work independently for an indefinite period of time while also establishing my credibility and defending my turf.

Honestly, more than anything I'm really going to miss the good working relationship with my boss and their coolness on a personal level.  As I mentioned in earlier posts, I may be looking for a different company in my preferred geographic location in 9 months to a year from now anyway.  The past 3 months have gone by really quickly and I am hoping that whatever the coming months hold does not radically change my experience for the worse.

Current Adapt EL: 5.75
Remaining Study Days: 8

Saturday, August 3, 2013

Epic People Study to Epic Music

No time for blog posts - here is 5 hours of epic study music.  FM in two weeks and I'm only at 4.75 earned level on ADAPT.