Postpouri

Took a couple days PTO before New Year's so I am just finding time to update this blog.  Clearly I've not given this much priority - looks like my last update was September.  I'll update about work mostly but also some personal life stuff.

Work: 

I think I've mentioned how I've had to take over a lot of the managerial stuff in my department since my supervisor's departure.  I've found this stuff very frustrating! (and I hear the former boss did not enjoy it much either, for the same reasons).  Executives have a lot of management 'devices' - tools to define goals, motivate and focus work, grade performance, etc.  These devices seem to usually come from the latest article on management published in the Harvard Business Review.  Some executive gets the idea to propose implementing a device they read across the company and...I don't know, maybe improve their reputation with the board or with the CEO or something if it 'works' (i.e. if we unrelatedly happen to have a good year).

Two reasons this is shitty:  First is that a case study doesn't establish that the device was responsible for whatever claimed positive impact was found at the company it came out of (usually a large tech company which in no way resembles our small carrier).  Secondly, the implementation pre-requisites are often laid out in the article but ignored anyway, at least at my company.  This is the part that frustrates me most, because I have to implement it in my department.  One such device isn't even meant to be used at a departmental level - it is specific to a business unit.  There are requirements for numbers of employees, authority levels, etc, none of which are met in my department of 1.  Not to mention the fact that the financial performance indicators are not something that can be tracked at a departmental level.  So the scorecards and things that I end up putting together end up 1. wasting a lot of my time; 2. frustrating me because I know I can't create anything of quality but I have to make it and call it mine anyway; 3. being constituted of a lot of bullshit; and 4. potentially influencing decisions at a higher level (GIGO - garbage in, garbage out).

And I'm still handling this stuff after 4.5 months now.

What else..

I've completed a second major project recently and had very good results both in terms of the actual findings and in my effectiveness at presenting the findings to a broader audience.  That was a high note in the past couple months.

I also have a couple projects on deck which will be more interesting.  Assessing a data product (relativities) which could potentially be implemented in our rating structure is one.  As far as how to do that..I have to figure it out.  I guess there is the crude approach - order exposures ascending by the relativity provided to us, group exposures into quantiles and assess loss ratios over a historical period - and there must be a more sophisticated approach.  Not sure exactly what the more sophisticated approach is and have to figure that out...its a loss model, so transforming the relativity and entering it into the existing severity GLM (as an offset?) and comparing the results to the reference model without the relativity based on AIC, BIC, gini index, Deviance.  If you know what I'm talking about I'd appreciate comments or link to the relevant CAS papers.

And let's see...I have to mention I'm sort of hesitant to talk too specifically about work in case someone I work with comes across this blog.  But it looks like I'm going to get some experience in another actuarial area due to the departure of some staff.  I think this will ultimately be a positive for my career development, though I also feel my development in my own area has been very slow due to not having guidance and this will only further hinder me there.

Last thought for those hoping to enter the field: I've found that one of my biggest areas for improvement is communicating/summarizing technical information for others.  Don't underestimate how important this is!  Executives want a few bullets, color-coded tables, 1-5 rating systems, etc.  Looking at your main graphs or tables and trying to imagine yourself as a person with no prior knowledge is difficult but useful.  What is bolded, larger font, how the table is laid out, where there is an arrow to draw attention, what columns are needed and which ones have less value in information added than value taken away by added complexity/confusion - these considerations are all important, though they can be frustrating for the donkey who knows his exhibits top-to-bottom.

Personal:

This post is already tl;dr and I'm getting tired of writing.  I've been on a few dates and there are two girls that are very interested but I'm just not feeling it for either of them.  There's just no spark.  Usually I am not the one feeling that way and it kind of sucks being the one that has to say this is not going anywhere.  Maybe I'm just getting pickier as I get older, which is a theory I heard recently, but I think really that pickings are getting slimmer.

Also, I just joined a brolic gym where I can lift heavy shit and put it down.  I've been wanting to do this for a while now.  I got a personal trainer (he manages the gym) I'll be working with 3 times a week at $25 bucks per hour session.  The gym itself was $35 a month or a year for like $150...I was really happily surprised, when the only other thing I was able to find was crossfit at over $9000 dollars a month and the people all seem like tools.  I'm doing the month before I go for the full year.  First session is Tuesday.

Peace out.